一种新的基于云理论和随机过程的可靠性评估方法  

A New Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Cloud Theory and Stochastic Process

作　　者：秦昳[1] 巨新刚[2] 卢强[2] 黄士坦[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安微电子技术研究所研究生部,陕西西安710054 [2]西安微电子技术研究所研发部,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《信息与控制》2012年第4期454-458,471,共6页Information and Control

基　　金：民用航天科技预先研究资助项目(C5220060318)

摘　　要：为解决系统可靠性评估中不确定性的问题和定性与定量信息转换的困难,结合随机过程可靠性分析方法和云理论,提出了一种新的可靠性评估方法.将云理论融合到随机过程可靠性分析方法中,利用云模型描述系统的状态转移.同时,构造系统定性评价中的云标尺,将系统可靠性评估中的定量变量和定性变量对应起来.该方法考虑了系统可靠性评估中的随机性和模糊性,研究了系统可靠性中的定量表示和定性评价之间的对应关系,结果是语言值,很直观.通过这个方法,找到语言值描述的系统特性与定量数值描述的系统特性之间的对应关系,能够准确理解和使用这些系统评估中的语言值.最后用一个实例验证了该方法的适用性.A novel method of reliability evaluation based on the stochastic process and cloud theory is proposed to solve the problems of the uncertainty in the reliability evaluation and the difficulties of the transformation between qualitative information and quantitative information in the reliability evaluation. The cloud theory is merged into the stochastic process reliability analytical method, and the system state transfer is described using cloud theory. At the same time, the cloud scale of the qualitative evaluation is constructed, and the quantitative variable and the qualitative variable in the system reliability evaluation are corresponded. The randomness and the fuzziness of the system reliability evaluation are considered in the method and the relationship between the quantitative variables and the qualitative variables is analyzed. The result is a linguistic value and is intuitive. Through the method, the corresponding relationship between the quantitative variables and the qualitative variables is found, and the linguistic value is understood and used in the process of the system evaluation. Finally, an example validates the feasibility of the method.

关 键 词：云理论 云可靠性 云模型 一维正态云 随机过程 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]