中国财政收支相互关系的实证检验  

An Empirical Testing on the Relationship between Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure in China

作　　者：董根泰[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经学院财政与公共管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《财经论丛》2012年第5期20-26,共7页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：2010年浙江省高校人文社科(财政学)重点研究基地资助项目

摘　　要：采用边限检验对我国财政收支的长时间序列进行考察，结果发现：1952～1980年间我国财政收支存在“双向因果”的长期均衡关系；1981～1994年间财政收支关系难以判定；而1995～2009年间存在“以收定支”的长期均衡关系。短期来看，财政调控应着力控制财政收入过快增长，进行适度减税。This paper aims to examine the relationship between China＇s fiscal revenue and expenditure with the long time series by bounds testing for ARDL model. It concludes that there is a bilateral causal relationship between China＇ s fiscal revenue and expenditure from 1952 to 1980. and there is difficulty determining from 1981 to 1994, but fiscal revenue- and- expenditure from 1995 to 2009.The paper suggests that the excessive growth of fiscal revenue be controlled and a modest tax cuts be implemented in the short tenn.

关 键 词：财政收支 双向因果关系 以收定支 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]