供给因素、结构变化、汇率与我国的双边贸易  

Supply Factor, Structural Change, Exchange Rate and China’Bilateral Trade

作　　者：黄万阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2012年第10期43-58,共16页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题实证研究"(11BJY014);辽宁省教育厅项目"辽宁出口可持续增长研究-基于多维度模型的计量分析"(WJ2010028)的资助

摘　　要：基于考虑供给因素、结构变化的出口决定模型,采用两方程方法和单方程方法研究了外国GDP、中国GDP、结构变化、汇率与我国17个双边贸易之间的关系。研究表明:供给因素、结构变化对我国双边贸易有重要影响,供给因素对我国与美、澳、马、巴、新、泰、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,结构变化对我国与德、印、加进口及出口的影响存在严重的不对称性,汇率对中国对15个贸易伙伴国出口与进口的影响存在严重的不对称性。采用出口除进口表示贸易收支做法的单方程方法的研究存在严重错误。经济增长模式对双边贸易有重要影响,人民币升值对我国双边贸易不平衡有一定的矫正作用,对改善我国双边贸易不平衡的国别分布有较大的积极作用。Based on export models with supply factor and structural change, by single equation method and two-equation method, this paper researches the re- lationships between foreign GDP, China＇ s GDP, structural change, RMB＇ s ex- change rate and China＇ bilateral trade. The study shows. Supply factor and structural change has important effect on China＇ s bilateral trade. Supply factor has very asymmetric effect on China＇ s export to US, Australia, Malaysia, Bra- zil, Singapore, Thailand, Canada and import from these countries. Structural change has very asymmetric effect on China＇ s export to Germany, India, Cana- da and import from these countries. RMB＇ s exchange rate has very asymmetric effect on China＇ s fifteen bilateral trade partners. There are serious errors in re- search by single equation method, in which trade balance is represented as ex- port divided by import. Economic growth pattern has important effect on China＇ s bilateral trade. RMB/$ exchange rate appreciation has limit correction effect on imbalanced China＇ s bilateral trade and bigger effect on improving the distri- bution of imbalanced China＇ s bilateral trade among countries.

关 键 词：供给因素 结构变化 汇率 双边贸易 GDP 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]