天山托木尔峰南坡科其喀尔冰川流域径流模拟  

Evaluation of Runoff from Koxkar Glacier Basin, Tianshan Mountains, China

作　　者：李晶[1] 刘时银[1] 韩海东[1] 张勇[1] 王建[1] 魏俊锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2012年第5期350-356,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：科技部国际合作项目(2010DFA92720-23);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-GJ04);中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所人才成长基金项目"冰川流域冷季风吹雪过程及其对积雪分布的影响"

摘　　要：天山冰雪融水是塔里木河的重要补给水源。利用融雪径流模型(SRM)对天山南坡科其喀尔冰川流域冰雪径流进行模拟研究。基于流域的气象梯度观测,确定了不同高度带降水梯度和月气温直减率。基于2007和2008年的实测径流值优化确定了各月的积雪、裸冰以及表碛覆盖冰的度日因子值。模拟结果表明,融雪和融冰径流过程都得到了比较好的模拟。流域径流对气候变化的响应研究表明,气温是敏感因子。气温分别升高1℃、2℃和4℃时,以融雪径流为主的3—5月径流分别增加48%、155%和224%,以冰川径流为主的5—10月径流分别增加30%、77%和104%。气候变化也会影响流域径流过程,气温升高4℃、降水增加20%时,春季径流峰值出现时间由5月中旬提前到4月20日左右。流量由6 m3/s增大到17 m3/s。Glacier and snowmelt water are precious resource for inland district in Northwest China.This paper applied the snowmelt runoffmodel （SRM） in the Koxkar glacier basin, southwestern Tianshan Mountains in China. Based on the field observation and MODIS snow cover product over the research basin, the parameters of the SRM were determined. The degree-day factor is very sensitive and important in the model, therefore this parameter was calibrated monthly by the runoff data in 2007 and 2008. For 2005 and 2006, the model result is acceptable compared with SRM model results applied in 80 catchments for 25 countries. Hence the model is suitable for the glacier cover basin. The response sensitivity of basin runoff to climate change has been done. Temperature is the control factor. Under the climate background of 1 ℃, 2 ℃ and 4 ℃ temperature rising, the runoff of Mar. May increases by 48%, 155% and 224% respectively, and the runoff of May-Oct. increases by 30%, 77% and 104%. The runoffprocess of the basin also changes under the increasing temperature of 4 ℃ and precipitation of 20%, the peak time of snowmelt runoff shifts from middle May to late April, and the peak of snowmelt runoff increases from 6 m^3/s to 17 m^3/s, and the peak of glacier runoff increases from 14 m^3/s to 28 m^3/s.

关 键 词：天山 度日因子 融雪径流模型(SRM) 科其喀尔冰川 气候变化 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]