矿区疏干诱发岩溶塌陷特征分析及预测  

Distribution Characteristics and Prediction of Karst Collapse Induced by Dewatering Aquifer in Mine Area

作　　者：王益伟[1] 罗周全[1] 康勇[2] 刘晓明[1] 左红艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]核工业216大队,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第8期10-14,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK09B02-05);中国博士后科学基金资助(2012M511417);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2012QNZT027);中南大学贵重仪器设备开放共享基金(CSUZC2012021)

摘　　要：针对某矿山疏干诱发岩溶塌陷的现状,分析其塌陷分布特征。提出6个影响塌陷的控制参数。采用相关分析方法量化各控制参数对塌陷的影响。相关性分析结果表明,塌陷的主要影响因素是第4系土层厚度、水位变幅及岩溶含水层渗透系数,其中岩溶含水层渗透系数对塌陷的影响最显著。应用Logistic回归方法,建立岩溶塌陷预测模型。划分出矿区塌陷危险区的具体空间位置,共有3个区域:高危区(渗透系数大于5 m/d);危险区(渗透系数为2.5～5 m/d);活跃区(渗透系数小于2.5 m/d)。The characteristics of distribution of Karst collapse were analyzed for the situation of Krast collapse induced by dewatering aquifer in a certain mine area. On this basis, six parameters controlling karst collapse were identified. They were hydraulic permeability of Karst aquifer, thickness of quaternary system soil stratum, land slope, bed rock slope, water level and amplitude of ground water level. The effect of each parameter on collapse was quantized using correlation analysis method. The results show that the hydraulic permeability of Karst aquifer, the thickness and amplitude of ground water level are the main influence factors, and that the hydraulic permeability of Karst aquifer has the most obvious effect on the amount of Karst collapse. A Karst collapse prediction model was built based on cumulative Logistic regression. Predicted results conform with reality.

关 键 词：岩溶塌陷 安全开采 分布特征 LOGISTIC回归模型 塌陷预测 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]