飞机抗鸟撞的预警动力学模型  

Dynamics Model for Bird Strike Accident Early Warning

作　　者：刘双燕[1] 邓琼[1] 陈春林[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第8期92-97,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(10872174);陕西省自然科学基金资助(SJ08A07)

摘　　要：为预防鸟撞事故,根据事故发生过程和开放系统的熵演变过程有很大相似性这一特点,采用信息熵理论解释事故发生过程,进而建立鸟撞事故发生和预警的动力学模型,揭示引发事故的主要原因和预防事故的对策。在此基础上,采用基于熵的综合评价方法,对造成事故的多个因素进行对比分析和综合评价,得出鸟撞事故中飞行时间(季节和昼夜2个因素)、飞行高度、飞机的结构、遭遇的鸟类和发生区域等5大类共6个因素的熵值。结果表明,飞鸟种类的熵值最大,为0.410 6;其次是飞机结构因素。因此,预防鸟撞事故应该从飞鸟控制和飞机结构设计着手。A system dynamics model for bird strike＇ s occurrence was introduced to study the Bird Strike disaster on airplane. The process of bird strike＇ s occurrence was explained by information entropy theory based on similarity of the process of bird strike＇ s occurrence to the evolution of the entropy of an open system. Main causes of the bird strike accident and the countermeasures for preventing it were revealed. Using the comprehensive evaluation method based on information entropy, entropy values of the 6 factors causing the accident （ including kind of birds, the timing of the flight, the height of the flight, the structure of aircraft and the area of bird strike＇s occurrence） were calculated. The result shows that the kind of birds is the most important factor in bird strike accident, of which entropy value is 0. 410 6, followed by the air- craft structure factor. In a word, bird strike accident prevention should start from the bird control and air- craft structural design.

关 键 词：信息熵 鸟撞事故 动力学模型 预警 综合评价 

分 类 号：X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学] V37[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]