外汇储备增长的宏观经济影响及货币冲销政策的有效性研究  

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES,MONETARY STERILIZATION AND SOCIAL OUTPUT——Empirical Study Based on VAR

作　　者：周双[1] 刘鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]国家信息中心,北京100045

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2012年第10期74-81,共8页Economic Theory and Business Management

摘　　要：为研究中国外汇储备增加的宏观经济影响和货币冲销政策的有效性,本文利用2002年6月—2011年5月的数据,通过建立VAR模型,对外汇储备增加和货币冲销政策对物价水平以及社会产出水平的动态影响进行考察。研究结果表明,我国的外汇储备增加具有明显的通货膨胀效应,而央行的货币冲销政策对物价水平具有显著的平抑作用,同时对社会产出却没有不利影响。最后,本文从实证结果得到几点重要启示。This paper examined the inflation effect of foreign exchange reserve increase and the effec-tiveness of monetary sterilization in China. A VAR model was employed to detect the dynamic effects of the foreign exchange reserve increase and the monetary sterilization on inflation and the level of social out-puts. The results showed that the monetary sterilization could affiliate the inflation effect raised by the for-eign exchange reserve increase, and the effect lasted for about 8 months, while it had a positive effect on the gross output. Finally, some implications were drawn from the test results.

关 键 词：外汇储备 货币冲销 通货膨胀 VAR 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]