新世纪中国农产品价格变动特征及原因分析  

On Characters of Price Variation of Chinas Agricultural Products with Attribution Analysis

作　　者：张利庠[1] 陈秀兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《教学与研究》2012年第10期18-25,共8页Teaching and Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大课题"产业链视角下农产品价格形成机制和调控机制研究"(项目号:09&ZD044)的部分研究成果

摘　　要：中国农产品价格在2004年出现拐点,由低位平稳运行变为明显上升;生产成本上升、供需结构紧平衡、货币过度供给和突发事件等因素的共同作用使得2007年后农产品整体价格涨幅加大,年均上涨约11个百分点,其中三大粮食品种、棉花、蔬菜、水果的年均波幅变化相对较小,而大豆、豆油和肉类的价格波幅变化较大。长期来看,农产品供求紧平衡和生产成本的刚性上升将会进一步推动农产品价格上涨;短期来看,三大粮食品种价格将稳步上升但幅度可控;油棉类产品价格更易受国际市场影响;猪肉价格周期性上涨接近峰值;蔬果等小宗农产品价格波幅呈现很大的不确定性。The year 2004 witnessed a change in prices ot Chlna＇s agricultural proaucts Irom a smooth low running to an obvious upturn. After 2007, the overall trend of price rise quickened to an annual average of 11 percent because of the combined effect of rising production cost, tight balance of demand and supply, surplus supply of cash and emergencies. Among the products, the annual amplitude variation of cotton, vegetable and fruit were relatively smaller, while those of the soybeans, soybean oil and meat were large. In the long run, this rising trend will still be pushed forward by the tight demand-supply balance and the rigid rising cost of agricultural prod- uct. But in the short term, prices of three important grain products will be within control thought still rising steadily, while the prices of oil and cotton products are more easily affected by the in-ternational market. The cyclical rise of the price of meat has approached the peak value, while prices of vegetables and fruits show great uncertainty.

关 键 词：农产品价格 变动特征 原因分析 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]