基于熵权法的新疆奇台绿洲水资源承载力评价研究  

Evaluation of water resource carrying capacity of Qitai Oasis in Xinjiang by entropy method

作　　者：熊黑钢[1,2] 付金花[2] 王凯龙[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京100191 [2]教育部绿洲生态重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆大学资源与环境学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报》2012年第10期1382-1387,共6页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171165);北京市属高等学校人才强教计划项目资助

摘　　要：针对新疆奇台绿洲水资源日益短缺及生态环境逐渐恶化的现实情况,本文通过构建水资源承载力研究的指标体系,应用主成分分析法选取主要指标,并采用熵权法进行赋权,依据水资源承载力综合模型对其水资源承载能力予以分析评价,以期使该地区水资源得到合理利用,并为绿洲可持续发展提供支撑。研究结果表明:该区1993年水资源承载力综合得分0.83,1998年为0.75,至2005年达到研究时段的最低值0.66,反映出其水资源承载力不断下降,且近几年下降速度加快。后期(2003—2005年)水资源承载力综合得分年均下降率是早期(1993—1998年)的47.96倍,为中期(1999—2002年)的8.39倍。奇台绿洲水资源承载力主要受经济与生态环境、人口、农业用水、水资源利用程度、气候状况5大成分影响。其中前三者累计贡献率为73.58%,反映出经济迅猛发展、生态环境恶化、人口数量增加以及农业灌溉水激增是导致水资源可进一步利用潜力减小的最主要因子。The reality is that there today exists not only an increasing scarcity of water resources,but also worsening ecology of the Qitai Oasis in Xinjiang.It is thus urgent to build an index system of water resources carrying capacity.So,in this paper,principal component and entropy analyses were used to select and empower the main indexes of water resources carrying capacity in the oasis region.Water resources carrying capacity of Qitai Oasis was analyzed and evaluated to facilitate not only rational use of water resources in the oasis region but also sustainable development of the oasis ecology.The results showed that water resources carrying capacity in the oasis region was 0.83 and 0.75 in 1993 and 1998,respectively.It dropped to the lowest value of 0.66 in 2005.The trend of decline in water resources carrying capacity accelerated with time.The rate of decline in 2003 to 2005 was 47.96 times as much as that in 1993 to 1998 and 8.93 times that in 1999 to 2002.Qitai Oasis water resources carrying capacity was mainly driven by five main factors,including economic and ecological factor,population factor,agricultural water use factor,climatic factor,and other water uses factor.The accumulated contribution rate of the three former factors was 73.58%.This was a solid reflection of the negative effects of rapid economic development,increasing population and agricultural irrigation,and worsening ecological environment on the availability of water resources and the increasing potential for further water saving in the oasis region.

关 键 词：绿洲 水资源承载力 熵权法 主成分分析 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]