PSA通用数据库中超参数的估计方法研究  

On Hyperparameter Estimation Methods for Generic Database of PSA

作　　者：何劼[1] 张彬彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海核工程研究设计院,上海200233

出　　处：《核动力工程》2012年第5期83-86,共4页Nuclear Power Engineering

摘　　要：在构建核电厂概率安全评价可靠性通用数据库时,通常难以确定核电设备的超参数值。如果超参数的值不准确,那么堆芯损伤频率的不确定性分析结果将受到影响,而且也难以开展设备可靠性参数的贝叶斯更新。为解决这方面问题,根据经验贝叶斯方法,研究从设备失效记录得到可靠性通用数据过程中的统计学模型和参数估计方法,重点讨论矩法估计和极大似然法估计的数学原理,并通过举例介绍这两种方法的实际应用。It is usually difficult to determine the hyperparameters of components for reliability, generic database involved in nuclear power plant PSA. Meanwhile, inaccuate hvperparameter values adversely impact the uncertainty analysis of core damage frequencies and Bayesian updating of component reliability parameters. To seek a solution, with empirical Bayesian approach, research was performed on the statistical models and parameter estimation methods that help to build the reliability generic database from the component failure records. The mathematical mechanisms behind the method of moment estimation and the maximum likelihood method were the focus of discussion, with an example demonstrating the application of these two methods.

关 键 词：概率安全评价 设备可靠性 贝叶斯方法 矩法估计 极大似然法估计 

分 类 号：TL364[核科学技术—核技术及应用]