中国城镇居民预防性储蓄动机强度估计  

An Estimation of the Strength of Precautionary Saving Motive in Chinese Urban Residents

作　　者：陈兵[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学,上海200433 [2]上海立信会计学院,上海201620

出　　处：《上海金融》2012年第10期8-12,116,共5页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：上海市教育委员会重点学科建设项目(J51703);教育部特色专业(TS12058)的资助

摘　　要：论文选择中国城镇居民1992—2008年间的分省面板数据,采用二阶段最小二乘法,对中国城镇居民预防性储蓄动机强度及时序变化进行估计。研究结果表明全国及分地区城镇居民都存在显著的预防性储蓄动机,西部地区城镇居民预防性储蓄动机最强,而且全国及分地区城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机强度在上世纪90年代后期出现显著的上升,然后出现适度的减弱。针对实证分析结果,本文分析认为市场化导向的改革总体上强化了中国城镇居民预防性储蓄的动机,同时,高等教育收费体制和房价的上升也是中国城镇居民预防性储蓄的重要原因。This paper empirically examines the strength and timing changes of the precautionary saving motive in China's urban residents by employing the two stage least squares(2SLS) method on a panel data set from 1992 to 2008.The results show that urban residents in China and the sub-region do exit a strong precautionary saving motive and that the strength of western urban residents is stronger than that of the central and eastern urban ones.In addition,the strength of the national and sub-regional urban residents precautionary saving motive soared in the late 1990s,then it declined modestly.Lastly,the paper argues that the market-oriented overall reform strengthens the precautionary saving motive in China's urban residents,meanwhile,higher education fees system and increase in housing prices are also important reasons for precautionary saving motive in China's urban residents.

关 键 词：城镇居民 预防性储蓄 相对谨慎系数 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]