基于MCI与FCI对我国货币政策调控的比较研究  

A Comparative Research of the Effects of MCI and FCI on China's Monetary Policy Management

作　　者：刁节文[1] 容玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]中国人民银行上海总部,上海200120

出　　处：《上海金融》2012年第10期47-50,117,共4页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"基于金融形势指数的货币政策调控有效性研究"(项目编号:10CJY075);上海市教委第五期重点学科建设项目(学科编号:J50504)

摘　　要：本文通过汇改以来的月度宏观经济数据分别构建我国的货币状况指数和金融形势指数,并对其进行比较分析。研究结果表明货币状况指数和金融形势指数能够反映我国货币松紧状况,并可以预测通货膨胀率,从而作为货币政策调控的辅助参考指标。分析结果还表明,FCI是通货膨胀率的先行指标,是引起通胀的Granger原因,在控制通胀方面作为指示器要优于MCI。This paper uses monthly macroeconomic data since the exchange rate reform to build monetary conditions index(MCI) and financial conditions index(FCI) of China,and conducts a comparative analysis.The results show that the monetary conditions index and the financial conditions index can reflect China's monetary situation and predict the inflation rate,so both of them can be used as auxiliary indicators for monetary policy.We also point out that FCI is a leading indicator of the inflation rate and is the Grange reason that causes inflation;FCI is better than MCI as the indicator to control the inflation.

关 键 词：货币状况指数(MCI) 金融形势指数(FCI) 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]