吉林省冰雪旅游与区域经济增长协整分析及Granger因果检验  

Cointegration Analysis and Granger Causality Test between the Ice-snow Toursim and Regional Economic Growth in Jilin Province

作　　者：张娜[1,2] 佟连军[3] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院,长春130024 [2]东北农业大学文法学院,哈尔滨150030 [3]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130012

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2012年第5期73-77,84,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学项目(12512078)

摘　　要：利用吉林省1985—2010年人均冰雪旅游收入和人均GDP时间序列分别作为衡量冰雪旅游和区域经济增长的指标,对吉林省冰雪旅游与经济增长的关系进行协整分析,并用Granger因果检验,确定两者之间作用方向,在此基础上建立误差修正模型,讨论两者间作用力度。结果表明:吉林省冰雪旅游与区域经济增长存在着协整关系,区域经济增长是冰雪旅游的Granger原因。长期内,冰雪旅游收入每变动1%,经济增长将同向变动0.509 7%。从误差修正模型可以得出,短期内冰雪旅游与经济增长之间互相作用力度不大,其中经济增长对冰雪旅游调整作用强于后者对前者的作用力度。Using the time series of per capita ice-snow tourism income and per capita GDP from 1985 to 2010 in Jilin Province as the index to measure the ice-snow tourism development and the economic growth in this region, the relationship between the ice-snow tourism and economic growth was analyzed with the method of cointegration and tested by the Granger causality to identify the reaction direction between the ice-snow and economic growth. And the reaction degree was discussed by the construction of ECM. The results show that the cointegration relation exists between the ice-snow tourism and regional economic growth in Jinlin Province, and the regional economic growth is the Granger causality of ice-snow tourism. For a long period, the variation of 1% in the ice-snow tourism income results in the change of 0. 509 7% in GDP in the same direction. In a short period, the reaction degree be- tween the ice-snow and the economic growth is not high through the analysis of ECM. The degree of economic growth to ice-snow development is higher than the degree of the latter to the former.

关 键 词：冰雪旅游 经济增长 协整分析 GRANGER因果检验 误差修正模型 吉林省 

分 类 号：F592.99[经济管理—旅游管理]