旅游预测模型及应用  

Tourist forecast model and applications

作　　者：张友兰[1] 周爱民[2] 王新学[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北省科学院应用数学研究所,石家庄050081 [2]南开大学国际经济研究所,天津300071 [3]河北省财政厅,石家庄050051

出　　处：《河北省科学院学报》2000年第2期85-88,共4页Journal of The Hebei Academy of Sciences

摘　　要：本文分析了旅游引力模型、多元（逐步）回归模型和时间序列模型在预测旅游人数方面的优缺点。并给出了河北省今后几年国外游客人数及美国游客人数的预测结果。对河北省旅游业的发展提出若干建议。The models of tourist gravity, multivariate regression and time series, are discussed in the paper, and feasibility and defect are pointed out in the forecast of tourist population. At the same time it shows the forecast result of foreign tourist population in next years in Hebei. Furthermore, some worthful advise is offered for the further development of Hebei's tourist.

关 键 词：预测模型 旅游业 旅游引力模型 多元回归 河北 

分 类 号：F592.722[经济管理—旅游管理] O211.67[经济管理—产业经济]