利用网络规模迭加法估计重庆市男男性行为人群规模的研究  

Application on size estimation through the network scale-up method on men who have sex with men in Chongqing municipality

作　　者：包水莲[1] 吴国辉[2] 张维[2] 周超[2] 郭巍[1] 周芯蕾[1] 王璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京102206 [2]重庆市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2012年第10期1036-1039,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：美国疾病预防控制中心全球艾滋病项目（1U2GPS001188）;中国疾病预防控制中心2011年青年科研基金（2011A104）

摘　　要：目的利用网络规模迭加法估计重庆市男男性行为者（MSM）人群规模。方法采用多阶段随机抽样的方法在重庆市开展社区人群的问卷调查，利用网络规模迭加法估计重庆市一般人群的社交网络规模（c），进而根据社交网络规模和调查对象认识MSM的人数及歧视程度，估计和调整重庆市MSM人群的规模。结果重庆市居民的社交网络规模平均为330人，不同区县（P〈O．001）、性别（P〈O．0001）、年龄（P〈0．0001）及文化程度（P〈O．0001）的社交网络规模差异明显；按照性别、年龄、文化程度校正，稳定性分析及异常值剔除后，居民社交网络规模的均值为310人；MSM人群规模为16767人（95％CI：14602～18932），约占重庆市15～49岁男性人口数的0．21％。结论网络规模迭加法是一种全新的人群规模估计方法，具有简便和快捷的特性及一定的推广价值。Objective To estimate the size of men who have sex with men （MSM） in Chongqing municipality. Methods A community based investigation was conducted in Chongqing to estimate the number of personal social network （c value） in the general population through the network scale-up method （NSUM）. All the participants were selected by multistage sampling randomly. Factors as c value, the number of acquaintance of MSM and its respective coefficient were used to estimate and adjust the size of MSM in Chongqing. Results The average size of personal social network for Chongqing residents was 330, with differences among place （P〈 0.001 ）, sex （P〈 0.0001 ） , age （P〈0.0001） , education level （P〈0.0001）. The size of social network changed into 310 after the adjustment on demography, back estimation and elimination of the outliers. The estimated population size for MSM was 16 767 after the adjustment according to the respective levels, with 95%CI from 14 602 to 18 932, which accounted for 0.21% of the total number of males, aged from 15 to 49 in Chongqing municipality. Conclusion NSUM was a new method for estimation of population size, which seemed worthy in promoting the practice of NSUM for its efficiency.

关 键 词：网络规模迭加法 男男性行为者 人群规模估计 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]