近51年来三江源区降水变化的空间差异  

Spatial difference of precipitation variation in Three-River headwaters region of China in recent 51 years

作　　者：李珊珊[1] 张明军[1] 汪宝龙[1] 李小飞[1] 骆书飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2012年第10期2635-2643,共9页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41161012);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-10-0019)资助

摘　　要：利用1960—2010年三江源区12个气象站的降水资料,通过气候线性趋势分析、5年滑动平均、IDW插值法、Morlet小波分析和R/S分析法对该区降水量的时空变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了降水量变化趋势。结果表明:三江源区1960—2010年降水量总体呈现增加趋势,具体表现为20世纪60、70和90年代降水量偏低,80年代明显偏高,2000年以后显著增多;从季节变化来看,春季、夏季和冬季降水量均呈增加趋势,尤其春季增加显著,而秋季降水量呈减少趋势,不同流域的季节变化趋势不尽相同;空间变化上,三江源区绝大部分地区的降水量呈增加趋势,表现为北高南低,东西差异明显,同时不同季节的空间变化存在差异;不同流域降水量在一定的时间序列中存在不同周期变化;三江源区年降水量和各季节降水量的未来变化趋势与过去基本一致,但各流域降水的持续性强度有所不同。Based on the 1960-2010 precipitation data from 12 meteorological stations in the Three-River headwaters region, and by the methods of climatic linear regression, 5-year moving average, inverse distance weighted （IDW） interpolation, Morlet wavelet analysis, and rescaled range analysis, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of precipitation and its future tendency in this region. In 1960-2010, the annual precipitation in this region presented an overall increasing trend, being lower in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s, obviously higher in the 1980s, and markedly increased after 2000. The precipitation in spring, summer, and winter, especially in spring, exhibited an increasing trend, but that in autumn had a decreasing trend. The variation trend of the precipitation in different catchments was not the same in four seasons. In most areas of this region, the precipitation had an increasing trend, being higher in the north and lower in the south, but less difference in the east and west. The precipitation in different catchments had different vibration periods during a certain time series. A similar variation trend was observed in the annual and seasonal precipitation in the region between the past and the future, but the continual strength of the precipitation somewhat differed with the catchments.

关 键 词：三江源区 降水 空间差异 MORLET小波分析 R/S分析 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]