上海城市空间扩展过程模拟预测的多模型对比  

Simulation and prediction of urban spatial expansion in Shanghai:A comparison of multiple models

作　　者：崔福全[1] 徐新良[2] 孙希华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院,济南250014 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所、资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2012年第10期2703-2708,共6页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家基础研究重点计划项目(2010CB950901);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目(40921140410)资助

摘　　要：模型模拟预测是开展城市扩展时空过程研究的有效方法之一。本文以上海市为研究地区,选用CLUE-S、LTM和SLEUTH模型并借助GIS技术手段对上海市城市空间扩展进行了模拟预测及结果的对比分析。结果表明:CLUE-S、LTM、SLEUTH3种模型模拟机理有所不同,CLUE-S模型和LTM模型均是首先进行城市扩展需求预测,进而通过对影响因子的综合分析,计算城市空间扩展的可能性(概率),从而实现城市扩展的空间分配;而SLEUTH模型则无需进行城市扩展需求预测,模型直接根据城市扩展的历史轨迹进行模拟预测;CLUE-S、LTM、SLEUTH3种模型模拟的2005年上海城市空间扩展结果与遥感监测结果的一致性程度均较高,其中SLEUTH模型模拟结果精度最高,Kappa系数为0.85,较CLUE-S模型与LTM模型具有一定的优势。2005—2020年上海城市空间扩展的面积为207.7～320.87km2,2020年上海市城市面积将达到1121.96～1235.13km2,未来15年上海城市扩展速率将达到13.85～21.39km2.a-1。CLUE-S、LTM、SLEUTH3种模型各有其优势与不足之处,整合3种模型的优点,研发出具有开放性的综合模型将是未来城市扩展模拟预测的发展趋势。Using models is an effective way to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal process of urban expansion. In this paper, the CLUE-S, LTM, and SLEUTH models were used, and combined with GIS technology, to simulate and predict the urban expansion process of Shanghai, with the results compared and analyzed. It was shown that the three models had somewhat different mechanisms in the simulation and prediction. CLUE-S and LTM models predicted the urban expansion demand first, and then, through comprehensively analyzing different affecting factors, calculated the probability of urban expansion to achieve the spatial allocation, whereas SLEUTH model did the simulation and prediction directly, based on the analysis of the historical development of urban expansion. The three models simulation results of the urban expansion in Shanghai in 2005 were highly consistent with the remote sensing monitoring results. SLEUTH model had the highest simulation precision, with the Kappa coefficient being 0.85, suggesting that this model was superior to CLUE-S and LTM models. In 2005-2020, the area of urban expansion in Shanghai would be 207.7-320.87 km^2, and in 2020, the City’s area would be 1121.96-1235.13 km^2. In the next 15 years, the urban expansion rate of the City would be 13.85-21.39 km2·a^-1. Each of CLUE-S, LTM and SLEUTH models had its advantages and disadvantages, and to integrate the advantages of the three models and develop an open and comprehensive model would be the tendency of simulating and predicting urban expansion.

关 键 词：上海市 城市空间扩展 CLUE-S模型 LTM模型 SLEUTH模型 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F224