中国西南山地森林演替模型的参数估计与模拟检验  

Parameter Identification and Simulation Verifying of Southwestern Forest Succession Model

作　　者：霍常富[1] 鲁旭阳[2] 程根伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016 [2]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2012年第10期78-83,共6页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31070405);辽宁省博士科研启动基金项目(20111144)

摘　　要：以气候因子(温度和降水)为主要驱动变量对森林演替进行模拟预测的数学方法,将土壤演替与树木演变结合起来,采用随机过程模拟气候波动及单木生长、死亡的不确定性,实现了西南山区森林个体与群落的动态仿真。在野外调查和文献调研的基础上筛选出了西南山地森林40个代表性树种,确定了各树种的17个特征参数,进行了参数估计。在贡嘎山、色季拉山和高黎贡山3个重点林区进行了模型验证。结果表明:模型可以准确地再现贡嘎山泥石流迹地森林原生演替的过程;模型可以比较准确地反映贡嘎山、色季拉山和高黎贡山不同海拔的森林树种组成;在3个地点的模拟结果都与当地顶级森林的垂直分布规律相一致。SFSM模型取得了较好的验证结果,对于我国西南山区天然林更新与保护,提供了关键的评价理论与预测技术。The Southwestern Forest Succession Model （ SFSM）, driven by monthly mean temperature and precipitation, is an important tool for evaluating the potential dynamics of species composition and size structure of forest at the site scale. The model parameters for up to 40 representative tree species in southwestern forests were evaluated based on the field investi- gation and literature study. A stochastic technique was applied to the medel to simulate the variation of climate and the un- certainty of tree death. The behavior of SFSM model was tested in three typical mountains in southwestern China. Results show that the model can accurately reproduce the process of vegetation primary succession from the debris flow on the east- ern slope of Gongga Mountain. The model can also reflect the forest species composition at different altitudes in Sejila, Gongga and Gaoligong Mountains. The simulation results are well matched with observations of forest types along altitudinal gradients in these three mountains. The SFSM model successfully underwent a comprehensive test. Therefore, the model can be used to explore the mechanism and predict forest dynamics in this region.

关 键 词：西南森林 种群竞争 林窗模型 参数估计 

分 类 号：S718[农业科学—林学]