基于GIS和Markov的黄龙山天然林区地类变化  

Change in Land Types of Natural Forest Regions in Huanglong Mountain Based on GIS and Markov

作　　者：赵鹏祥[1] 孙存举[2] 郝红科[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学,杨凌712100 [2]四川省林业调查规划院

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2012年第10期93-97,共5页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30972296)资助

摘　　要：以黄龙山林区为研究对象,以其1986、1997、2006年森林资源二类调查资料为数据源,运用GIS空间分析模型、土地利用动态度模型对该林区三期地类面积变化及水平空间格局特征进行了分析,并运用马尔可夫(Markov)模型对2015年地类分布状况进行了预测。结果表明:研究区地类结构以阔叶林和针叶林为主;1986—1997年间,针叶林、阔叶林、农田等面积增加,荒地剧烈减少,反映出该区域天然更新、人工抚育和植树造林以及垦荒造田的发展过程;1997—2006年间,退耕还工程的实施,使农田和荒地减少,阔叶林和灌木林地,特别是针叶林的大幅增加,主要变化趋势为其他土地利用类型转向有林地和灌木林地,土地利用类型向着更加理想的方向转移。Markov模型模拟结果表明,今后9 a内阔叶林面积将会由增加转为减少,针叶林面积和针阔混交林面积有所增加,这一结果将在2015年地类变化调查中进行验证。GIS and the dynamic degree model of land use were used to analyze the change in areas of different forest types in for- est regions in Huanglong Mountain using the forest resources inventory data of 1986, 1997 and 2006 as data sources. The distribution of different forest types in 2015 was predicted based on Markov model. Results show that the main types of for- est land are bread-leaved forests and coniferous forests. The area of coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests and farmland increased, while the area of barren land obviously decreased from 1986 to 1997, indicating a development process by natu- ral regeneration, artificial tending, afforestation and converting barren land to farmland. With the implementation of con- version of farmland to forests from 1997 to 2006, the area of broad-leaved forests, shrub land, especially coniferous for- ests, increased, while the area of farmland and barren land decreased. Other land use types changed into forest land and shrub land, which indicated that the land use changed towards the idealized state. Markov prediction reveals that the area of broad-leaved forests will begin to decrease after an increase after nine years, and the area of coniferous forests and conif- erous and broad-leaved mixed forests will increase to some extent, which still need to be verified in a survey of forest land change in 2015.

关 键 词：林地变化 黄龙山 GIS MARKOV模型 

分 类 号：S757.9[农业科学—森林经理学]