陕西省苹果单产非线性预测模型研究  

Research on Non-linear Regression Model of Meteorological Factors for Apple Yield in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：刘璐[1] 王景红[1] 屈振江[1] 高峰[1] 柴芊[1] 梁轶[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省经济作物气象服务台,西安710014

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2012年第25期248-251,共4页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国气象局2010年新技术推广项目"蔬菜;果品产量气象预报技术应用"(CMATG2010M03)

摘　　要：为了更好地服务陕西省苹果产业发展,客观定量预测陕西省苹果产量,为政府部门制定苹果产销及产业发展提供科学决策依据,选择影响苹果产量的主要气候资源为预测因子,利用非线性回归分析方法,对陕西省5个苹果主要生产基地县分别建立单产气象因子非线性回归预测模型。模型检验显示,5县各年苹果单产预测的准确率均达64%以上,且该模式能够较准确地反映各县苹果单产情况,预测效果较好。该预测模型是对苹果产量预测技术方法的首次尝试,思路清晰、可操作性强,可为其他省份建立苹果产量预测方法及其他经济林果产量预测方法提供借鉴。In order to serve apple industry development and provide scientific decisions to the development of apple production and marketing for Shaanxi Province,objective and quantitative prediction model of apple production was found.By using meteorological conditions as predictor,which affected apple production,taking non-linear regression model as method,non-linear regression model of meteorological factors for apple yields were established for 5 apple production base counties in Shaanxi Province.The models checking results showed that accuracy rate was over 64%,and the models could accurately reflect the yield.The models were the first time to forecast apple yield,and they were clear thinking and operable,which could provide a reference to other provinces to forecast apple yield,or to forecast the yield for other economic fruits.

关 键 词：苹果 非线性预测模型 产量预测 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]