拓展中国与主要新兴经济体国家的贸易关系--基于制成品出口技术结构的比较分析  

Expanding Trade Relationship of China and Major Emerging Market Countries——Based on Comparative Analysis of the Manufactured Exports Technical Structure

作　　者：洪世勤[1,2] 刘厚俊[2] 叶玲[3] 程永文[4,5] 

机构地区：[1]合肥学院 [2]南京大学经济学院 [3]南京大学商学院 [4]合肥学院经济系 [5]合肥工业大学管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2012年第10期82-92,共11页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究青年项目“后危机时代中国开放型经济发展方式转型研究”(10YJC790039);安徽省哲学社会科学规划办项目“安徽房地产投资收入分配和地区生产总值之间的动态关系”(AHSK11-12D266)

摘　　要：随着欧债危机愈演愈烈,过度依赖欧美市场的中国正在加紧对新兴市场的开拓步伐。为了提高中国出口商品在新兴市场的国际竞争力,本文通过测度出口商品技术复杂度指标,首先计算了SITCRev.3至5位码下2600多种制成品的技术含量,在此基础上将所有制成品按技术含量从低到高排列后分成五类,然后计算了中国与11个崛起中的新兴经济体国家在每类产品上的出口份额,构建各新兴经济体的出口技术结构。通过比较中国与新兴经济体国家出口技术结构,考察中国与新兴经济体国家之间贸易的竞争域、贸易的发展空间、贸易的发展潜力,以及这种相互间的贸易替代域与贸易发展空间的动态变化。分析结果表明:入世以来,中国制成品出口技术结构继续升级,但是升级速度落后于印度;中国与印度、越南相比,低技术含量制成品的优势已经不明显,与俄罗斯、新加坡、韩国、马来西亚、巴西和墨西哥相比,中国在高技术和中偏高技术制成品上处于劣势。在这种后追前堵的趋势下,中国有落入"中等收入陷阱"的风险,据此提出了优化中国与各新兴经济体国家之间出口技术结构和跨越"中等收入陷阱"的政策建议。Along with the increasingly fierce European debt crisis, China which has excessive reliance on European and American markets is stepping up to emerging markets, especially in developing countries markets. In order to improve the international competitiveness of China＇s export products in emerging markets, this paper calculates SITC Rev3 to 5 digital 2600 kinds of manufactured goods technical complexity through the measure of export commodities technical complexity index. Based on manufactured goods technical complexity, each kind of manufactured goods is arranged and classified from small to large according to its technical complexity. Finally, export share of China and 11 emerging economies in every category of products is calculated, construct of export technical structure of each economy. The paper analyzes trade competition domain, trade development space and potential as well as dynamic change of the mutual trade alternative domain and mutual trade development space between China and emerging economies. Results show that： since China＇s entry into WTO, technical structure of manufactured goods export has been updated, but the speed lagged behind India. India is a potential competitor. Compared with India and Vietnam, China doesn ＇t have an advantage over low technical manufactured goods. Compared with Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico, China is in a disadvantage position over high technical and above-average technical manufactured goods. Under this circumstances, China has a risk of falling into middle-income trap. Accordingly, the authors put forward policy suggestions of optimizing technical structure of export between China and each emerging economies and stepoing over middle-income trap.

关 键 词：新兴市场 制成品出口 技术复杂度指标 出口技术结构 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]