推迟退休年龄和延迟领取基本养老金年龄可行吗——来自广东省在职职工预期退休年龄的经验证据  

Is it Feasible to Defer Retirement Age and Postpone the Earliest Age for Pension Benefit?——Empirical Evidences from Expected Retirement Age of On-Job Workers in GuangDong Province

作　　者：阳义南[1] 才国伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2012年第10期111-122,共12页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学项目(11YJC630247);广州市哲学社会科学发展"十二五"规划青年项目(2012QN004);教育部人文社科项目(09YJC790264);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(10wkpy19);广东省优秀博士学位论文专项基金的资助

摘　　要：推迟退休年龄、延迟领取养老金年龄的主要影响群体是在职职工,本文使用广东省21个地市对在职职工的问卷调查数据,探索该政策能否可行的经验证据。结果显示,男职工选择在55岁之前退休的占55%,女职工选择在50岁之前退休的占41.2%,表明在职职工存在明显的提前退休倾向,推迟退休并不符合在职职工预期。OrdinalLogistic回归表明参加养老金制度年数对男女职工预期退休年龄的影响均显著为负,表明参加养老金制度越久,预期退休年龄越早;Binary Logistic回归也证实参加养老金制度年数越久,提前退休可能性越大。实证结果说明基本养老保险制度不能激励职工推迟退休、延迟领取养老金。为此,本文提出了对应的四点改革建议。Since the mainly affected group of deferring retirement age and postponing the earliest age for pension benefit is the on-job workers, this article uses survey data from 21 cities in GuangDong province to investigate the planned retirement age of workers. The results show that 55% of male workers will choose to retire before 55, 41.2% of female workers will choose to retire before 50, which demonstrate an early retirement tendency. After controlling the effect of other factors, the results of Ordinal Logistic model demonstrate that participation years of pension program have a significantly negative effect on planned retirement age of the workers. The results of binary logistic model also confirm that participation years have a significantly negative effect on the dummy variable of early retirement. These empirical evidences indicate that deferring retirement age doesn＇t match the expectation of on-job workers and current old-age insurance system also can＇t encourage workers to postpone the earliest age of pension benefit. At last, this article puts forward a series of policy suggestions.

关 键 词：退休 养老金 预期退休年龄 ORDINAL LOGISTIC模型 Binary LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：F249.27[经济管理—劳动经济] F842.6[经济管理—国民经济] F224