石油净进口大国利率与油价对净出口的影响  

The Effects of Interest Rate and Oil Price on the Net Exports of Net Oil Importers

作　　者：吴振信[1] 余頔[1] 王书平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《商业研究》2012年第10期21-26,共6页Commercial Research

基　　金：北京市教委学科与研究生教育专项基金项目;项目编号:PXM2010_014212_093659;北京市属市管高等学校人才强教计划资助项目;项目编号:PHR20110869

摘　　要：传统贸易理论在研究影响一国净出口因素时只考虑了汇率和收入水平,本文在此基础上加入了利率和油价因素,并以美、中、日三个石油净进口大国为例进行了实证分析,结果表明利率上升减少投资需求,降低国内物价水平,增强出口商品价格竞争力,使出口增加,进口减少;油价上涨,石油进口支出增加,一国进口总额增加。实证和理论分析结果基本相符,即净出口与利率呈正向关系,与油价呈负向关系。Traditional trade theory only takes exchange rate and income as the factors that affect a country′s net exports.This paper also takes interest rate and oil price into account,and makes an empirical analysis using the data of power net oil importers including the USA,China and Japan.The results indicate that higher interest rate first decreases the demand of invest and domestic commodity prices,then strengthens the price competition of export commodity and finally improves the exports.Higher oil price increases a country′s oil import value and total imports.The conclusion of empirical analysis and theoretical analysis are basically consistent： Net exports show a positive relationship with interest rates and negative relationship with oil price.

关 键 词：利率 油价 净出口 石油净进口大国 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]