内蒙古开鲁县近58年气温、降水量变化特征及未来变化趋势  

Change Characteristics of Temperature and Rainfall in Kailu County of Inner Mongolia in Recent 58 Years and Their Future Chang Trend

作　　者：姜秀萍 郭颖[2] 王晓光 黄金福 周光会 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古开鲁县气象局,内蒙古开鲁028400 [2]内蒙古通辽市气象局,内蒙古通辽028000

出　　处：《畜牧与饲料科学》2012年第9期17-20,共4页Animal Husbandry and Feed Science

摘　　要：以线性趋势和R/S分析方法对内蒙古开鲁县1953—2010年各季和年平均气温、年平均降水量进行了分析。结果表明,58年来开鲁县年及各季均温呈上升趋势,夏季均温的时序相关系数在0.01显著水平以上,其他为0.001极显著水平以上,倾向率为每10年上升0.19～0.41℃,而且均符合赫斯特现象,H值≥0.7139,未来将继续维持上升趋势;年及夏、秋季平均降水量为减少趋势,时序相关系数大于或接近0.10水平,春、冬季为增加趋势;年及各季降水量变化符合赫斯特现象,其中,年及春、夏、冬季的H值≥0.6026,未来年及夏季降水量将维持减少趋势,春、冬季维持增加趋势,秋季H值接0.5,未来趋势难以预测。Using linear trend and R/S analysis method, the temperature and rainfall in Kailu County of Inner Mongolia in different season and the whole year during 1953-2010 were analyzed. The results show that the average temperature in Kailu County in the whole year and different season in recent 58 years showed the increasing trend and the succession correlation coefficient of the average temperature in the summer was above 0.01 significant level and others were above 0.001 significant level. The trend rate was to increase 0.19- 0.41 ℃for each 10 years and was all in line with Hurst phenomenon. H values in the spring, summer, autumn and whole year were all more than 0.602 6. The annual and summer rainfall in the future would keep the decreasing trend and that in spring and winter would keep the increasing trend. H value in autumn was near to 0.5 and the future trend was hard to be predicted.

关 键 词：气温 降水量 变化特征 未来趋势 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]