海洋环境数值预报检验方法的探讨与测试  

A Method for Verifying Numerical Forecasts of Marine Environment

作　　者：毛可修[1,2] 张晓娟[2] 刘金芳[2] 梁新友[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,山东青岛266100 [2]海军海洋水文气象中心,北京100161

出　　处：《海洋测绘》2012年第5期70-73,共4页Hydrographic Surveying and Charting

摘　　要：对获得的海浪有效波高、海表温度、剖面温度和水位等要素的实测数据以及历史CTD资料,通过对这些数据进行分析和处理,检验WW3海浪、三维温盐流以及MODAS(模块化数据同化系统)等模式的数值预报产品,并设计相应的软件进行各时次的实时比对和旬月统计,自动生成客观的旬月检验报告。为改进预报模式、提高数值预报的准确性和预报产品的使用率提供可靠的依据。This article analyzes and processes the measured data of the valid wave-height,SST（sea surface temperature）,profile temperature and SSH（sea surface height） and the historical CDT data to verify the numerical forecast products in the patterns of WW3,3D-TSC and MODAS.The related softwares are designed for real-time comparisons four times a day,ten-day and monthly statistics,as well as automatically producing ten-day and monthly verification reports.The method provides the reliable basis to improve the forecasting mode,and increase the accuracy of numerical forecasts and the usage of forecasting products.

关 键 词：数值模式检验 误差统计模型 预报模式 检验报告 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]