山东省一岁以下婴儿麻疹病例时空分布特征分析  

Analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of measles patients younger than 1 year old in Shandong province

作　　者：朱毓卉[1] 许青[2] 李秀君[1] 宋立志[2] 王常银[2] 刘静[1] 岳大海[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,济南250012 [2]山东省疾病预防控制中心计划免疫研究所

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2012年第10期898-902,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金（ZR2010HM126）;山东大学自主创新基金（2009TS010）

摘　　要：目的了解1999--2008年山东省1岁以下婴儿麻疹患病的时空分布特征。方法收集山东省1999--2008年所有县（市、区）1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病数据，共5309例。描述麻疹流行特征，计算出各县（市、区）婴儿年发病率；应用ArcGIS9．3软件绘制疾病空间图，通过GeoDa0．95i—beta软件进行空间白相关分析。结果山东省报告1岁以下婴儿发病率从1999年的23．45／10万（206例）上升到2008年的269．60／10万（2791例）；5309例麻疹患儿中，除12月龄外，各月龄均有发病，主要集中在6～9月龄（3494例），8月龄最多，占20．7％（1100／5309）；麻疹在山东的流行高峰期为3—5月份，占45．5％（2414／5309）；时空分布显示，在时间分布上先降后升，在空间分布上由东向西逐渐增高；1999、2001-2002、2005-2008年的山东省婴儿麻疹发病率的全局Moran’s I值分别为0．346、0．150、0．396、0．213、0．477、0．354、0．331（P值均〈0．01）；2004年发病率的全局Moran’s，值为0．076（P〈0．05）。局部空间自相关分析发现，鲁西南和西北地区为婴儿麻疹高发热点区。结论1999--2008年山东省1以下岁婴儿麻疹发病率上升明显，以6～9月龄高发，3-5月份为流行高峰；该病存在空间正相关，具有明显的地区分布规律，存在聚集区。Objective To explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of measles patients younger than 1 year old in Shandong province. Methods A total of 5309 cases of measles, whose patients were younger than 1 year old in Shandong province between year 1999 and 2008 were collected. The epidemic features of measles were described, and the annual infant incidence was calculated. Software ArcGIS9. 3 was applied to draw the spatial map of the disease, and the software GeoDa0. 95i-beta was adopted to analyze the spatial autoeorrelation. Results The incidence among infants younger than 1 year old reported in Shandong province rose from 23.45/100 000 （206 cases）in 1999 to 269. 60/100 000 （2791 cases）in 2008. 5309 cases covered all month-aged infants under 1 year old, except 12 months old. Most patients （3494 cases） aged between 6 -9 months old; especially the infants around 8 months old, accounting for 20. 7% （1100/5309）. The epidemic peak was between March and May, accounting for 45.5% （ 2414/5309 ）. The spatial and temporal distribution features showed an up and down temporal trend and an increase from east to west in spatial trend. The global Moran＇s I values of measles incidence among infants in Shandong province were O. 346,0. 150,0. 396,0. 213,0. 477,0. 354 and 0. 331 in year 1999, 2001 - 2002, 2005 - 2008 （P 〈 0. 01 ） and 0. 076 in year 2004 （ P 〈 0. 05 ）. The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that southwest and northwest districts of Shandong were highly clustered districts of measles. Conclusion In Shandong, the measles incidence among infants younger than 1 year old rose obviously; especially the infants aged between 6 -9 months age. The epidemic peak was between March and May. A positive spatial correlation was found, the disease showed a distinct regional distribution feature, and a cluster district was found.

关 键 词：麻疹 婴儿 地理信息系统 时空聚类分析 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]