青藏铁路沿线热喀斯特湖易发程度的区划评价  

Zoning Evaluation on Occurrence Degree of Thermokarst Lake along Qinghai-Tibet Railway

作　　者：鲁嘉濠[1,2,3] 程花[4] 牛富俊[1] 林战举[1] 刘华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州73000 [2]外生成矿与矿山环境重庆市重点实验室,重庆地质矿产研究院,重庆400042 [3]煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室重庆研究中心,重庆400042 [4]重庆能源职业学院,重庆400042

出　　处：《灾害学》2012年第4期60-64,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：科技部"九七三"计划项目(2012CB026101);国家自然科学重点基金项目(41030741);国家自然科学创新群体(41121061);冻土工程国家重点实验室自主项目(SKLFSE-2Y-07)

摘　　要：随着全球气候的持续转暖,青藏铁路沿线热喀斯特湖数量正在逐年增多、面积逐年增大。湖塘的形成虽然具有一定的随机性特点,但其发生的区域性和重复性特点是热喀斯特湖分布与出现的总体规律。在野外系统勘测调查的基础上,依据工程地质类比原则,结合专家打分、层次分析、信息量、统计量等模型方法,对区域内湖塘产生与发展起一定主导作用的历史因素(灾点密度、灾面密度)和基本地质环境因素(冻土类型、年均地温、植被覆盖度、土质类型、地形坡度)基于ArcGIS平台进行综合分析评价,得出楚玛尔河至风火山段青藏铁路沿线热喀斯特湖易发程度的空间分布。结果表明,占研究区总面积47.97%的高易发区占据了湖塘总数量的87.94%、总面积的91.15%,主要分布在楚玛尔河高平原、北麓河盆地和可可西里山间盆地;中易发、低易发、非易发三个区占据了研究区总面积的52.03%,却仅分布了占总数量12.06%、面积8.85%的热喀斯特湖,主要分布于可可西里山区、风火山山区及河谷地区,与2011年9月份野外考察的热喀斯特湖实际的空间分布状况保持了较好的一致性。Under the background of global warming,the quantity and area of thermokarst lakes along Qinghai-Tibet Railway are increasing year by year.Randomness reflects one aspect of the thermokarst lakes’ generation,but regional regularities and repetition of individual lake phenomenon dominate the distribution of lakes on a regional scale.Based on site engineering reconnaissance and according to the analogy principle of engineering geology,by means of combining Expert Estimation Model,AHP,Information Value Model and Statistic Model,etc.,analysis based on ArcGIS platform on historical factors concerning the occurrence and development of the lakes（spot and area densities）,and basic geological environment factors（frozen ground types,mean annual ground temperature,vegetation coverage,soil type and terrain slope） is conducted and spatial distribution of occurrence degree of Chumaer River to Fenghuo Mountain section along Qinghai-Tibet Railway is got.The whole area is shown to be of 4 categories：the high grade area,just accounting for 47.97% of the total study area,takes up for 87.94% of the quantity and 91.15% of the total area of the lakes and distributes mainly over Chumaer River High Plain,Beiluhe Basin and Hoh Xil Basin;the medium grade,low grade and stable area taking up for 52.03% of the total study area,which just account for 12.06% of the quantity and 8.85% of the total area of the lakes,distribute mainly over Hoh Xil Mountain,Fenghuo Mountain and River valleys.The result shows the consensus with the actual spatial distribution of the thermokarst lakes drawn from the field survey on September,2011.

关 键 词：青藏铁路 热喀斯特湖 易发程度 区划评价 

分 类 号：S151[农业科学—土壤学] X43[农业科学—农业基础科学]