高速公路项目社会经济效益的产生机制及其评价研究  

Research on the evaluation and mechanism of socio-economic benefit of highway projects

作　　者：王宇宁[1] 运迎霞[1] 范志清[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑学院,天津300072 [2]国家开发银行天津市分行,天津300061

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2012年第10期97-102,共6页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：天津市规划局科技计划项目(2010H3-0011)

摘　　要：基于系统工程的思想,通过分析高速公路社会经济效益产生的机制,建立了区域经济—公路交通发展系统动力学模型,以天津市津蓟高速公路为例,通过系统仿真误差检验,证实了该系统动力学模型的仿真效果较好、性能稳定。通过已建—未建高速公路系统仿真结果的有无对比,计算并预测出了津蓟高速公路2003—2013年各年的社会经济效益,从而实现了高速公路项目社会经济效益评价的定量化目标,为今后类似项目的开展提供了理论指导。Based on the theory of system dynamics,the paper analyzes the mechanism of socio-economic benefits of highway projects and establishes the system dynamic model of regional economic-public road transportation.Then taking Jinji highway project of Tianjin as an example,the error of system simulation tested and the system dynamic model built are verified to be quite stable,which have a high performance.Through the comparison of simulation results of Jinji highway being built or not,the paper simulates and predicts the socio-economic benefit of each year from 2003 to 2013.Thus the quantification evaluation of socio-economic benefit of highway project is realized and it will provide the theory instructions for similar projects in the future.

关 键 词：高速公路项目 社会经济效益 评价 系统动力学 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]