中国开放式基金风险测度及其顺周期性研究  

A Study on the Risk Measurement and Pro-cyclicality of the Open-end Fund in China

作　　者：周琼[1] 黄溪[2] 周华[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [3]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《海南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2012年第5期118-123,共6页Journal of Hainan University （Humanities & Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"我国逆周期金融监管机制研究"(71173180)

摘　　要：开放式基金是中国金融体系中的重要组成部分,从理论上看,开放式基金的风险随着经济周期而变动,并会进一步对金融体系的整体风险产生影响,加剧经济周期和资产价格的波动,加大金融危机爆发的风险,呈现所谓的顺周期性。中国的开放式基金是否存在顺周期性?本文选取2003年1月2日至2011年10月28日的中证基金指数进行实证分析,结果表明,我国开放式基金风险值顺周期性明显。因此,应该针对开放式基金构建逆周期监管体系,减缓其顺周期性,增强整体金融体系的稳定性。The open-end fund serves as a pivotal part of China＇ s financial system. Theoretically, the risk of the open-end fund is positively proportional to the economic cycle, hence exerts further impact on the overall risk of the financial system. Additionally, it is able to periodically fluctuate with the economic cycle and asset price, and increases the likeliness of financial crisis, displaying the so-called pro-cyclieality. Does China＇ s open-end fund vary pro-cyclically？ With the case study of CSI Fund Index from January 2nd, 2003 to October 28th, 2011 in this paper, it turns out that the open-end fund in China has the apparent pro-cyclicality. Therefore, we should establish a counter-cyclical regulatory system to slow down its pro-cyclicality and enhance the stability of the overall financial system.

关 键 词：开放式基金 金融风险 顺周期性 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]