一种尾矿库风险评估的可能性处理方法  

Possibility Processing Method on Tailings Pond Risk Assessment

作　　者：樊庆英[1] 杨风暴[1] 王肖霞[1] 陈磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中北大学信息与通信工程学院,山西太原030051

出　　处：《计算机与现代化》2012年第10期24-26,共3页Computer and Modernization

基　　金：山西省高等学校留学回国人员科研资助项目;中北大学2012年校基金资助项目(201201)

摘　　要：尾矿库作为一种危险源,对其进行风险评估是很必要的。首先在统计国内尾矿事故的基础上分析不同事故类型发生的概率;然后根据概率可能性转换方法,将概率分布转换为可能性分布,引入可能性理论中的可能性测度;最后考虑各个事故发生时的风险,结合专家赋值法,将其综合起来,计算出尾矿库的风险值。以此风险值为基础,建立风险评估模型。结合工程实例,验证该方法的可行性和有效性。Tailings pond is a kind of dangerous source,so it is very necessary to carry on the risk assessment for tailings pond.It first analyzes the probability of occurrence on different types of accidents,which is based on the statistics domestic tailings accident;then according to the probability-possibility transformation,probability distribution is converted to the possibility distribution to introduce possibility measure of possibility theory;finally combining with risk of each accident and expert assignment it calculates the risk value of the tailings.The risk assessment model is established based on this risk value.Combining with engineering example,it shows the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

关 键 词：尾矿库 概率可能性转换 可能性测度 风险值 

分 类 号：TP301[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]