Vulnerability of an inland river basin water resource system under the background of future accelerated glacier melt: A case of Yarkent River Basin in arid Northwest China  

作　　者：HuLin Pan 

机构地区：[1]Division of Hydrology Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Aeademy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

出　　处：《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》2012年第5期394-400,共7页寒旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Western Project Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Nos.KZCX-XB2-04-04,KZCX2-XB2-09-6)

摘　　要：Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010-2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin＇s water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeco- nomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin＇s water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate wanning and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010-2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin＇s water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeco- nomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin＇s water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate wanning and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.

关 键 词：climate warming accelerated glacier melt human activity vulnerability of water resources Yarkent River Basin Northwest China 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]