玉树地震前NCEP异常现象  

Abnormal Phenomenon of NCEP Before Yushu Earthquake

作　　者：周波[1] 马未宇[2] 陈聪[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210046 [2]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [3]浙江大学计算机学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《地震研究》2012年第3期330-334,441,共5页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：中国博士后基金项目(20090460403);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(CXZZ11_0878);南京师范大学研究生科研创新计划资助项目联合资助

摘　　要：利用天体引潮力周期变化计算模型和NCEP多源综合温度数据资料,分析了2010年4月14日青海玉树MS7.1地震的诱因。结果表明:在玉树地震前,天体引潮力经历低谷—高峰—低谷—高峰的连续变化,NCEP遥感数据呈现出起始增温—加强增温—高峰增温—增温衰减的规律,由此证明以NCEP温度为主导,以天体引潮力构造附加应力变化为参考,是一种有希望的预测思路。Using the cycle process model of the astro-tidal-triggering and according to the NCEP integrated multi- source temperature data, we analyzed the triggering factors of Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake in Qinghai occurred on Apr. 14 in 2010. The result indicated that astro-tidal-triggering went through a continuous change between peak and trough, such as ＂trough-peak-trough-peak＂, and the NCEP remote sensing data showed the law of ＂origi- nal temperature rise-enhancement-reaching peak-attenuation＂ before Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake. Thus, under the dominant of temperature variation in the NCEP remote sensing data and taking the tectonic additional stress varia- tion of astro-tidal-triggering as the reference is a promising idea to predict the earthquake.

关 键 词：玉树地震 天体引潮力 NCEP遥感数据 异常增温 

分 类 号：P315.728[天文地球—地震学]