云南地震灾害人员伤亡预测方法研究  

Prediction Method Research on Casualties Due to Earthquake Disaster in Yunnan

作　　者：施伟华[1] 陈坤华[1] 谢英情[1] 李西[1] 庞卫东[1] 代博洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224

出　　处：《地震研究》2012年第3期387-392,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：地震行业科研专项"宁洱6.4级地震现场综合考察和研究(200808061)"资助

摘　　要：以1992～2010年云南地区的破坏性地震的伤亡人数资料为主,将其分别与地震震级和烈度统计拟合,得到云南地区震级和烈度与死亡人数的关系曲线及表达式。根据云南各地的自然环境和社会发展的差异,确定了各种条件下的地震灾害人员死亡影响因子加权系数的取值,对两个拟合关系表达式进行校正。采用该方法计算了已发生的12个地震的死亡人数,并与实际的地震灾害死亡人数作了对比及讨论。Using the data of the number of casualties due to destructive earthquake in Yunnan area from 1992 to 2010, we fitted curve and expressions between magnitude, intensity and deaths respectively. According to the difference of natural environment and social development among various places in Yunnan, we identified weighting coeffi- cients values of casualty＇s impact factor in earthquake disaster under various conditions and used weighting coeffi- cients to calibrate the two expressions of fitting relation. At last, we applied this method to estimate the death number of 12 earthquakes and compare with the actual number of death in actual earthquake disaster.

关 键 词：破坏性地震 地震灾害 人员伤亡 云南地区 

分 类 号：P315.94[天文地球—地震学]