控制图法和比数图法在某部队水痘疫情预警中的应用  

Application of control chart and deviation bar chart? in early warning of varicella in a military unit

作　　者：杨春梅[1] 王辉[1] 卢娟[1] 宫占威[1] 袁键[1] 高丽莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军兰州军区疾病预防控制中心疾病监控科,甘肃省兰州市730020

出　　处：《职业与健康》2012年第20期2443-2445,共3页Occupation and Health

基　　金：兰州军区后勤科研计划项目(项目编号:CLZ11J05)

摘　　要：目的建立有效的水痘疫情预警方法,早期发现水痘流行的迹象,以尽早采取控制措施。方法利用2006—2010年某部队水痘发病数据建立预警数据库,应用控制图法和比数图法建立预警模型,参照流行标准,通过计算比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、约登指数及绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC),优选出最佳预警模型和预警界值。结果控制图法的预警功效优于比数图法,预警界值为P 90时,灵敏度为100%,特异度为75.0%,阳性预测值为66.7%,约登指数为0.75。结论控制图法可做为水痘疫情预警方法。[Objective]To set up warning models for early warning of varicella,to early detect epidemic signs of varicella so as to adopt control measures as soon as possible.[Methods]The varicella incidence data of a military unit from 2006-2010 was used to form an early warning database,and control chart and deviation bar chart for early warning model establishment.The optimal model and thresholds were ascertained through calculation of sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,Youden index and drawing receiver operator characteristic curver（ROC）with reference to the popular standards.[Results] The warning model of control chart had a higher warning efficacy than that of deviation bar chart.At the P 90 of alert threshold,sensitivity was 100%,specificity of 75.0%,positive predictive value of 66.7%,Youden index of 0.75.[Conclusion]Control chart method can be used as early warning models for varicella.

关 键 词：早期预警 控制图 比数图 水痘 部队 

分 类 号：R135[医药卫生—劳动卫生]