欠发达地区制造业出口与发展潜力的影响因素——基于新疆维吾尔自治区面板数据的实证研究  

The Factors of Export and Development Potential of Manufacturing Industry of Underdeveloped Area:Based on the Empirical Study of Xinjiang’s Panel Data

作　　者：龚新蜀[1] 顾成军[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,832003

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2012年第11期83-93,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“资源环境约束下的新疆维吾尔自治区产业转型研究”(11XJY015);教育部人文社会科学新疆维吾尔自治区项目“资源环境约束与生态脆弱区产业升级路径研究--以新疆维吾尔自治区化工产业为例”(11XJJC790003)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文选取18个行业的面板数据,从行业视角、生产效率视角和市场视角三个方面,结合两步法系统广义距估计对新疆维吾尔自治区制造业出口和发展潜力的影响因素进行了实证研究。新疆维吾尔自治区制造业资本投入推动了出口发展和发展潜力的提升,但具有周期性短的特点;对外开放度和潜在竞争力是新疆维吾尔自治区制造业促进出口和提升发展潜力的有效途径;新疆维吾尔自治区制造业外部市场对内部市场具有显著但不强的竞争替代性,开拓外部市场应以内部市场为基础和支撑。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。By choosing 18 industry-panel data, the paper empirically re- searched the factors of export and development potential of Xinjiang manufacturing industries with the sys-GMM2 method from 3 aspects： the industry, the pro- duction efficiency and the market. First, the capital investment improved export and development potential of Xinjiang manufacturing industries, but had the characteristic of short period. Second, openness and potential competitiveness are the effective ways to improve export and development potential of Xinjiang manufac- turing industries. The former made it develop horizontally and dynamically, but the latter did not make it develop vertically and dynamically. Third, the outer market to inner market has the competitive alternative of Xinjiang manufacturing industries, and to develop exterior market should take the internal market as the basis and support. At last, this paper put forward some relative policy sugges- tions based on the empirical study.

关 键 词：制造业 发展潜力 潜在竞争力 对外开放度 竞争替代性 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]