非常规货币政策的理论效应与实际效果之比较  

Zero Bound Constraint and Unconventional Monetary Policy:The Comparison of Theoretical Effects and Actual Results

作　　者：潘成夫[1] 刘刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院金融学院,510320

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2012年第11期165-176,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"金融危机下经济政策国际合作与冲突及中国的对策研究"(项目批准号:10CGJ015);国家社会科学基金项目("金融危机后人民币汇率大国博弈及中国对策研究"(项目批准号:11CGJ009)的阶段性成果;广东商学院国民经济研究中心"资本市场与投融资研究创新团队"项目的资助

摘　　要：在全球金融危机中,美国等主要国家的央行实施了零利率货币政策,并在零利率约束下求助于量化宽松等非常规货币政策工具。文章使用金融市场和宏观经济运行的各项数据并结合最新实证研究结果,对非常规货币政策的实际效果与理论效应进行逐一比较,对非常规货币政策的各种理论假设效应进行全面的验证。总体而言,非常规货币政策确实可以通过几个传导效应起到降低长期实际利率的作用,但是截至目前对信贷扩张以及刺激总需求的效果比较有限,在此基础上进一步探讨了非常规货币政策未如理想的原因、非常规货币政策理论效应存在的不确定性以及时滞等因素制约了其发挥更大作用。In the global financial crisis, the central banks implemented zero interest rate monetary policy, also resorted to unconventional monetary policy such as quantitative easing at zero bound constraint. To this end, the study first explores unconventional monetary policy measures and channels through which can be effective at zero bound constraint theoretically; and then uses the finan- cial markets and macroeconomic data combining with the latest empirical re- search, and compares the actual results with theoretical effects of unconventional monetary policy comprehensively. Overall, unconventional monetary policy can inz deed reduce the long-term real interest rates through several theoretical channels, however the effects of credit expansion ed to date. Further, the paper explores policy is unsatisfactory. and stimulating aggregate demand is limit- the reasons why unconventional monetary

关 键 词：零利率 货币政策 量化宽松 流动性陷阱 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]