全球多区域CGE模型的构建及碳泄漏问题模拟分析  

Construction of Global Multi-regional CGE Model and Simulation Analysis of Carbon Leakage

作　　者：牛玉静[1,2] 陈文颖[1,2] 吴宗鑫[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学现代管理研究中心 [2]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2012年第11期34-50,共17页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家“973”课题“转移排放和碳泄漏在谈判中的应用研究”(2010CB955502);“十一五”国家科技支撑计划课题“减缓气候变化关键技术研究”(2007BAC03A03)资助

摘　　要：本文建立了一个综合描述全球经济、能源、环境的多区域CGE模型(GAGE模型),定量分析多区域减排政策的碳泄漏情况,以及碳关税对碳泄漏的影响。研究结果表明:美国参与减排可显著降低碳泄漏;碳关税对碳泄漏有减缓作用,但只有当实施的区域足够大时才有显著影响;采用指标"有效减排量"比"碳泄漏率"能更有效地评估减排行动;碳关税并不能改善减排行动的成效,而是进行贸易保护的借口或进行国际气候谈判的筹码。This paper developes a global multi-regional economy-energy-envi- ronment CGE model （GAGE）, which is employed to analyze carbon leakage of the multi-regional emission reduction policies and impacts of carbon tariffs on carbon leakage quantitatively. The results show that, the participation in emission reduc- tion of US can significantly reduce the carbon leakage rate; the implementation of carbon tariffs can indeed mitigate carbon leakage, which can be significantly ef{ee- tive only when carbon tariffs are implemented on the much enough regions; the in- dicator effective emission reduction can be used to assess mitigation actions more ef- fectively than carbon leakage rate~ carbon tariffs cannot improve the effectiveness of mitigation actions, but only become an excuse for trade protection or a bargain- ing chip in international climate negotiations.

关 键 词：全球多区域CGE碳泄漏碳税碳关税有效减排量 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]