校园恶性突发事件发生机理的“规则-策略”博弈学习模型  

Rule-strategy game learning model for the generation mechanism of campus vicious emergency

作　　者：刘德海[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025 [2]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年第10期2276-2286,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70901016;71171035;71271045);2012年辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划;辽宁省社会科学规划基金一般项目(L11BGL007)

摘　　要：在"规则-策略"的博弈理论范式下,建立了校园恶性突发事件发生机理的博弈学习模型.首先,通过建构社会边缘人的心智模型(包括主观认知规则和决策规则),分析了校园恶性突发事件中社会边缘人从理性的学习规则,到非理性的反社会学习规则的"规则学习"过程(即"规则学习"遵循着同时包含了强化学习规则与理性规则的广义强化学习模型),得出了社会边缘人面对自身博弈收益的持续恶化状况,采取非理性的反社会行为规则的临界条件.其次,分析了校园恶性突发事件处于潜伏期、爆发期和扩散期等不同演化阶段中社会边缘人的"策略学习"过程,构建了社会边缘人的"策略学习"的模仿学习模型.最后,提出防范校园安全的综合治理对策.Under the ＂Rule-Strategy＂ game theoretical paradigm, the game learning model of campus vicious emergency is built. Firstly, it analyzes the ＂rule learning＂ course of social marginal man from the rational learning rule to the irrational anti-social learning rule in campus vicious emergency, where the rule learning obeys the generalized reinforcement learning model including the reinforcement learning rule and rational behavior rule, and gets the critical condition that the social marginal man takes the irrational anti- social behavior rule when facing the income continual worsen. Secondly, it analyzes the social marginal man strategic learning course in the different evolutionary phases of campus vicious emergency including latent period, breakout period and diffusing period, and builds the strategy learning model of social marginal man. Lastly, the paper puts forward the countermeasures for overall treatment nf ~n~ ~o~

关 键 词：校园安全 规则学习 突发事件应急管理 社会边缘人 博弈学习模型 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]