基于Eaxent生态位模型预测苹果斑点落叶病菌在云南省的潜在分布  

Prediction of Potential Distribution of Alternaria mali Roberts Based on Eaxent Ecological Niche Model

作　　者：潘涌智[1] 黄忠[1] 马玉梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学林学院云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室,云南昆明650224 [2]云南省昆明市西山区农林局,云南昆明650100

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第30期14785-14787,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家林业局"948"项目(2010-04-07)

摘　　要：[目的]了解苹果斑点落叶病菌(Alternaria mali Roberts)在云南省的适生区范围。[方法]利用苹果斑点落叶病菌在云南省的分布点数据和环境数据建立了Maxent生态位模型,并通过将其投影到地理空间预测了该病菌在云南省的潜在分布范围。[结果]苹果斑点落叶病菌在云南的潜在分布区为云南省中部和北部的大部分地区。最冷月份最低温对该病原菌的预测分布有重要影响,最冷季度平均温度次之。经ROC曲线分析法验证得出AUC值为0.998,表明预测结果是可靠的。[结论]为防止苹果斑点落叶病菌的传播和科学评估其危害提供了参考。[Objective] The aim was to study the potential distribution of Alternaria mali Roberts in Yunnan Province.[Method] Eaxent ecological niche model was established by using the distribution points data of Alternaria mali Roberts in Yunnan Province and environmental variables,furthermore the potential distribution of Alternaria mali Roberts in Yunnan Province was predicted by projecting the model into geographical space.[Result] The centralized distribution of this species was areas of north central Yunnan Province.The lowest temperature of the coldest month affected the predicting distribution of this species greatly,and the average temperature of the coldest season followed it.The results were proved by ROC analytical method and the AUC value of Maxent was 0.998,and it suggested that the prediction was reliable.[Conclusion] The research results provide reference for the control of Alternaria mali Roberts and the scientific evaluation of its harm.

关 键 词：苹果斑点落叶病菌 Maxent模型 潜在分布 云南 

分 类 号：S436.611.19[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]