基于震中烈度的地震人员伤亡评估方法研究  

Study on assessment method for earthquake casualty based on epicentral intensity

作　　者：刘金龙[1] 林均岐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所 中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第5期113-119,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：地震行业专项(201108002)

摘　　要：系统总结了地震造成的人员伤亡的估算方法,以我国1990-2006年间造成人员伤亡的破坏性地震为数据样本,结合国内几次大地震的震害资料,找出了影响人员伤亡的主要因素,经过函数拟合与回归分析,提出了一个以震中烈度为主要参数,以震级和人口密度作为辅助参数进行修正的人员伤亡预测模型,并利用已有的地震实例进行了模型检验,证明其具有较好的精确性和可靠性。In this paper,the existing methods for the evaluation of seismic casualty were reviewed.The earthquake casualties＇ data of China from 1990 to 2006 were collected as samples.Combined these data with several representative destructive earthquakes＇ data of China,the main influence factor of earthquake casualty was found out.By function fitting and regression analysis,an earthquake casualty assessment model was put forward,with the epicentral intensity as the key factor and the magnitude and population density as the secondary factors to improve the assessment results calculated from the key factor.Finally,the assessment method presented in this paper is validated by comparing the evaluation results with the real earthquake casualties＇ data.

关 键 词：地震人员伤亡 评估方法 震中烈度 震级 

分 类 号：P315.94[天文地球—地震学]