台风灾害风险区划模型  

Risk zoning model of typhoon disasters

作　　者：胡波 严甲真 丁烨毅 黄鹤楼 赵伍杰 

机构地区：[1]宁波市气象局,浙江宁波315012 [2]浙江省淳安中学,浙江杭州311700

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第5期152-158,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B02);科技部农转项目(2008GB24160442)

摘　　要：台风灾害发生频率高,影响严重,是人类面临的全球性重大问题之一。对台风灾害进行科学、合理的风险评估显得尤为重要。以宁波市为研究对象,在隶属函数和自然灾害风险理论的基础上,综合考虑形成台风灾害风险危险性、暴露性和脆弱性,结合GIS技术建立了台风灾害风险区划模型,绘制了宁波市台风灾害风险区划图;并利用灾级指数对模型结果进行了验证。结果表明:宁波市各区、县的台风灾害风险指数中,宁海、鄞州、余姚、奉化、象山和慈溪台风灾害的总风险指数较大,老城区(海曙区、江东区、江北区)、镇海和北仑较小;宁波市东南沿海、城镇和部分山区台风灾害风险等级较高;灾级指数与台风风险指数的相关性较好,决定系数达到0.7181,且通过了0.01的置信区间。Typhoons happen frequently with serious consequences,so it is important to assess their risk.This paper takes Ningbo city as the example,draws the zoning map of typhoon disaster for the city using a risk zoning model,which was built on the basis of the membership function and natural disaster risk theory,while considering the hazard,exposure and vulnerability of typhoons,and applying the GIS technology.The effectiveness of the model was verified by disaster levels.The results show that,the overall risk indices of Ninghai,Yinzhou,Yuyao,Fenghua,Xiangshan and Cixi are relatively higher in counties and urban districts in Ningbo,while the indices of the old city（Haishu,Jiangdong,Jiangbei districts）,Zhenhai and Beilun are lower;the risk levels of typhoon disasters in the southeast coastal cities and towns and some mountain areas are high;disaster level and risk index has a good correlation,with the coefficient of determination reaching 0.7181 and the confidence interval passed 0.01.

关 键 词：隶属函数 自然灾害风险 台风 风险区划模型 宁波市 

分 类 号：P447[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]