技术、消费模式与中国碳排放增长——中国八大区域的实证研究  

Technology,Consumption Patterns and Growth of China's Carbon Emissions——An Empirical Study of China's Eight Regions

作　　者：赵定涛[1] 汪臻[1] 范进[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026

出　　处：《系统工程》2012年第8期1-9,共9页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171183)

摘　　要：借助环境投入产出-生命周期分析,对消费者生活方式方法(Consumer Lifestyle Approach,CLA)进行了改进,进而基于改进后的CLA计算了中国八区域城镇居民的嵌入式碳足迹(Embedded Carbon Footprints,ECF),并采用结构分解分析(SDA)估计了各区域技术和消费模式对ECF的影响。研究发现,技术进步起到了较好的减排作用,但消费模式变化的增排效应强于技术进步的减排效应,进而造成总的ECF增加。基于以上分析,作者认为,仅依靠技术进步来减排是不够的,我国还应把消费领域的节能作为"节能减排"一个重要内容。最后,本文根据不同区域的技术和消费模式对ECF影响的差异,给出了针对性的政策建议。Consumer lifestyle approach（CLA） is improved by using the environmental input-output-life cycle analysis.The embedded carbon footprints（ECF）of urban residents of China’s eight regions have been calculated.Then we use structural decomposition analysis（SDA） to estimate the impacts of consumption patterns and technology on eight regions’ ECF.Results show that technological progress plays an active role in emission reduction,but the pulling effect of changes in consumption patterns is stronger than the reducing effect of technological progress,which leads to the increase of the total ECF.Based on the above analyses,we point out that it’s not enough to depend only on technological progress to reduce emissions;instead,China should also let the consumption play a role in energy saving.Finally,specific policy recommendations are proposed according to the effects of technology and consumption patterns on the eight regions’ ECF.

关 键 词：嵌入式碳足迹 消费者生活方式方法 环境投入产出-生命周期分析 结构分解分析 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]