我国能源消费影响因素评价研究——基于突变级数法和改进熵值法的分析  

Research on Evaluation Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption in China——Based on Catastrophe Theory and Improved Entropy

作　　者：孟凡生[1] 李美莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《系统工程》2012年第8期10-15,共6页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71072075);国家软科学项目(2010GXQ5D328);黑龙江省工业和信息化委员会项目(GXW2010220)

摘　　要：为客观、准确地挖掘和评价我国能源消费影响因素,对国内外文献检索选取能源自然禀赋、经济增长水平和产业结构作为评价指标,构建我国能源消费影响因素的指标体系。针对目前常用多目标综合评价方法,如层次分析法、模糊评价方法和BP神经网络等存在的主观性较强、方法可行性难度较大等问题,运用突变级数法和改进熵值法构建我国能源消费影响因素评价模型,既克服了层次分析法、模糊评价法和BP神经网络等的缺陷,又不失科学性和合理性,具有良好的应用价值。选取我国2000~2010年相关数据对已构成的评价模型进行实证分析,并得出实证评价结论,实证评价结果为进一步分析和提炼我国能源消费影响因素有指导和借鉴作用,从而为促进我国能源的合理消费和改善环境提供理论和实践依据。This paper selects natural endowment,economic growth level and industrial structure as the evaluation index by the domestic and foreign literature retrieval,establishes index system of influencing factors of energy consumption to objectively and exactly dig and evaluate influencing factors of energy consumption.The defects of this method includes more subjectivity on weight decision or complex processes in calculation for many multiple object comprehensive evaluations,such as analytic hierarchy process,fuzzy evaluation,BP neural network and so on.In order to overcome these shortcomings,we establish an evaluation model of influencing factors of energy consumption with Catastrophe Theory and Improved Entropy to avoid the defects of analytic hierarchy process,fuzzy evaluation and BP neural network.It is proven that the combination of the two methods is scientific and reasonable and has good application value.Then we select relevant data during 2000-2010 in China to carry out empirical research into the proposed evaluation model.The results provide guidance for further analyzing and refining the influencing factors of energy consumption in China,which lays a theoretical and practical foundation for promoting the reasonable energy consumption and improving the environment in China.

关 键 词：能源消费 突变级数法 改进熵值法 影响因素 评价模型 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]