50年来秦岭金钱河流域水文特征及其对降水变化的响应  

Hydrological Characteristic and Its Responses to Precipitation Change in Jinqian River Basin of Qinling Moutains During the Last 50 Years

作　　者：白红英[1] 侯钦磊[1] 马新萍[1] 章杰[1] 袁博[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《地理科学》2012年第10期1229-1235,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技基础性专项重点项目(科技部)(2007FY110800)资助

摘　　要：运用集中度和集中期、Kendall秩相关系数、R/S分析法、降水—径流双累积曲线模型及其他数理统计方法,分析了金钱河流域径流的变化特征,探讨了年际、季节及月尺度上径流变化的趋势并预测了未来趋势,用集中期指标反映了径流对降水响应的滞后效应,并定量分析了降水变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：50 a来径流量呈现出显著的递减趋势（p〈0.05）,递减率为34.33 m3（/s 10a）,Hurst指数H=0.669〉0.5,表明未来的一段时间内变化趋势与现在相同;1-12月各月径流均表现为下降趋势。流域内径流对降水的响应存在滞后效应,50 a径流对降水平均每年滞后23.6 d,且滞后天数具有明显上升趋势。50 a来径流系数呈极显著减小趋势,降水量转化为径流的部分在逐年减少,被植物截留、填洼、入渗和蒸发的部分增加;径流发生突变后比突变前径流系数降低了35.2%。50 a来降水变化对径流变化的影响率为53.4%,高于人类活动影响率46.6%,是导致径流变化的主要原因,人类活动为次要原因。The response of river water resource to both human activities and climate changes,as the theoretical basis to understand the river hydrological process and the sustainable use of regional water resources,has gained more and more attentions in water research during the last decades.In this study,the seasonal and annual variations and the temporal trend of runoff in Jinqian River Basin were analyzed by using the methods of concentration frequency,concentration period,Kendall coefficient,rescaled range analysis and double mass curve for annual rainfall stream flow comprehensively,in which the runoff and precipitation lagging effect was represented by concentrated period index.The effects of the precipitation change and human activities on runoff were also analyzed quantitatively.The annual runoff of Jinqian River is mainly contributed by those occurred from July to October with a proportion of 65%.Regression analysis showed that the Jinqian River’s runoff decreased with time at a rate of 34.33 m3（/ s 10a）significantly（p0.05）.The Hurst index was 0.669,which indicates that the decreasing trends of runoff in Jinqian River’s will continue in the future.There is an around 23.6 days hysteresis in the response of runoff to precipitation,and the hysteresis has obvious up trend.Through the annual runoff coefficient,It was found that the runoff from rainfall decreased with the time due to plant interception,infiltration and evaporation during last 50 years.Human activities and climate change both had significant impacts on the water resource of Jinqian River.The result of double mass analysis showed that the decreases of runoff in Jinqian River’s mainly attributed to climate change,and its contribution were 53.4%.

关 键 词：金钱河流域 径流 集中度 集中期 径流系数 滞后 水文效应 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]