应用余弦模型探讨自杀死亡发生的季节性特征  

Analysis on Seasonal Characteristics of Suicidal Deaths by Application of Cosine Model

作　　者：张奕[1] 王嫽嫽[1] 汪慧[1] 刘媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]温岭市疾病预防控制中心,浙江温岭317500

出　　处：《浙江预防医学》2012年第11期11-12,23,共3页Zhejiang Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨温岭市自杀死亡发生的季节性特征。方法应用余弦模型对温岭市2006—2010年自杀月死亡人数直接拟合进行季节变动趋势分析。结果简单余弦函数方程y=40.3333+8.4192cos(ti-183.02°),说明温岭市自杀死亡高峰时期在7月中旬;含第四谐量余弦函数方程y=40.3333+8.4192cos(ti-183.02°)+6.5cos(2ti)+4.4721cos(3ti-153.43°)+3.2189cos(4ti-349.67°),该模型拟合可使y的变异减少93.51%,效果良好。结论余弦模型可用于预测自杀的周期性发生,为本地区自杀的防制工作提供科学依据。Objective To investigate the seasonal characteristics of suicide death in Wenling City. Methods By application of cosine model, the numbers of monthly suicide decedents from 2006 to 2010 in Wenling were directly fitting for the seasonal variation trend analysis. Results The simple cosine functional equation y = 40. 3333 ＋ 8. 4192cos （ ti - 183.02° ） indicated that suicide death peak season was in the middle of July; Equation with the fourth harmonic cosine function y = 40. 3333 ＋ 8. 4192eas （ ti - 183. 02° ） ＋ 6. 5cos （ 2ti ） ＋ 4. 4721cos （3ti -153.43°） ＋ 3. 2189cos （4ti -349. 67°） could effectively reduce the variation of y by 93.51%. Conclusion The cosine model could be applied to predict the periodicity of suicide, so as to provide the scientific basis for the prevention of suicide.

关 键 词：余弦模型 自杀 曲线拟合 季节变动 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]