中国农民健康保险需求影响因素的灰色关联分析  

Grey Correlation Analysis on Factors Affecting Chinese Farmers' Health Insurance Demands

作　　者：彭晓博[1] 孙祁祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《保险研究》2012年第10期39-46,共8页Insurance Studies

摘　　要：随着老年人口增多,农村医疗支出也会增加。未来若单靠政府投入势必会带来沉重的财政支出负担,长期将难以持续。基于这一背景,作者认为应当大力发展商业健康保险,培育市场,尽快建立起多支柱的医疗保障体系。本文从需求角度出发,认为影响农民健康保险需求的因素主要包括经济、卫生资源和社会文化等因素,并采用三因素中的代表性变量进行灰色关联分析,结果显示,卫生资源和支付能力与健康保险需求具有较强的灰色关联度。Rural residents＇ medical expenditure will increase notably as the surge in the elderly population. There- fore it will lead to a heavy burden on government＇s budget if the increase in healthcare expenditure was solely born by the government. The authors suggested, as a consequence, the importance of developing a multi-pillar health insurance system ,which should include government subsidized health insurance as well as commercial health insurance, should be recognized. The authors analyzed three factors which were hypothesized to be correlated with farmers＇ healthcare demands ,which included economic factors ,healthcare resource factors as well as social and cultural factors. Using a number of variables measuringthe above three factors, the authors conducted a Grey Relation Analysis. The results showed that farmers＇ health insurance demand was significantly correlated with economic factors , as well as healthcare resource factor.

关 键 词：健康保险需求 影响因素 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]