现阶段农村养老保险制度能有效提高农民土地流转意愿吗?——来自江苏沭阳县30镇49村的初步证据  

Can Rural Old-age Insurance System Effectively Improve the Famers′ Land Circulating Intention at the Present Age?——Preliminary Evidence from 30 Towns 49 Villages in Shuyang Jiangsu

作　　者：李放[1] 赵光[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第4期44-50,共7页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：江苏省社科基金重点项目(11GLA002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(KYZ201010);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金-南京农业大学人文社会科学重大招标项目(SKZD201206);江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2011ZDIXM024);教育部人文社科规划基金项目(12YJA840023)

摘　　要：基于江苏省沭阳县的调查数据,对农民参加养老保险情况与其土地流转意愿之间的关系进行了实证分析并得出结论:现阶段参加新型农村社会养老保险或商业养老保险的农民比没有参加的农民土地流转意愿更高。Logistic计量检验显示,农民是否参加养老保险与土地流转意愿呈显著正相关关系。拐点分析进一步表明,若农民没有任何养老保险,人均年收入需要达到10万元才能突破土地流转意愿的质变点,对于现阶段普遍只参加新农保的农民,土地流转意愿离质变点仍然有一定差距,而既参加新农保又参加商业养老保险的农民,人均年均收入仅需1600元以上就能达到较高的土地流转意愿水平。Based on the survey data of Jiangsu Shuyang,this paper carried out an empirical analysis about the relationship between farmers′ old-age insurance situation and their land circulating intention.And it drew out the following conclusion：at the present age,the farmers who participated in the new rural social old-age insurance or commercial old-age insurance had a higher land circulating intention than the farmers did not participate.Logistic Metrology and Inspection showed that farmers participate in old-age insurance and land circulating intention had a significant positive correlation.The inflection point analysis further showed that if farmers do not have any old-age insurance,it will not break through the qualitative point until the annual per capita income reached one hundred thousand RMB.For the most farmers who participated in new rural social old-age insurance,there is still a certain gap between the land circulating intention and the qualitative point.But for the farmers who participated in both the new rural social old-age insurance and commercial old-age insurance,the land circulating intention can reach a high level when the annual per capita income just get more than 1600 RMB.

关 键 词：新型农村社会养老保险(新农保) 商业养老保险 土地流转 意愿 Logistic模型 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]