基于状态转移分析的堤防体系洪灾风险评估  

State-Transition Analysis-Based Flood Risk Assessment for Dike Systems

作　　者：程卫帅[1] 陈进[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会长江科学院,武汉430010

出　　处：《地下空间与工程学报》2012年第A02期1824-1827,1840,共5页Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering

摘　　要：洪水作用的时间效应与堤防体系中存在的风险转移关系对堤防风险有重要影响,当目前得到的关注较少。本文根据洪水致灾的主要物理过程,在Monte Carlo模拟框架下,采用状态转移分析方法分析模拟风险转移关系,采用分支限界技术提高模拟效率,基于此给出了考虑洪水作用时间效应的洪灾风险计算方法,从而提出一种新的堤防体系洪灾风险评估模型。案例分析表明,洪水作用的时间效应明显地增加了堤防体系的洪灾风险,风险转移作用的存在将降低堤防体系的洪灾风险,改变堤防体系洪灾风险的空间分布。Time effect of flood loads and risk transfer among dikes have important impacts on flood risks of dike systems.According to the physical process of flooding,a new flood risk assessment model under the Monte Carlo framework for dike systems is presented in this paper.In this model,the state-transition analysis method is used to simulate risk transfer relationships among dikes,and the branching and bounding technique is used to improve computational efficiency,therefore,a risk assessment method considering time effect of flood loads for dike systems and dike sections is proposed.A case study indicates that the time effect of flood loads greatly increases the flood risk of a dike system,while risk transfers among dikes tend to decrease the flood risk and lead to tremendous changes of the spatial distribution of system risk.

关 键 词：堤防 状态转移 洪灾风险 风险评估 时间效应 

分 类 号：TU712[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]