饮料配送中心配送量预测与仓储空间评价方法  

Distribution Prediction and Storage Space Evaluation Methods for Beverage Distribution Centers

作　　者：王蕊[1] 邢艳秋[1] 李洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学工程技术学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《森林工程》2012年第5期107-109,共3页Forest Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(DL10BB05)

摘　　要：基于时间序列预测法和线性回归法,以唐山可口可乐营业所2008-2010年三年的配送量为原始数据,预测该配送中心未来两年的配送量,并将2011的配送预测量和实际配送量进行对比,评价该方法的预测准确度,进而定量评价该配送中心目前的仓储利用空间。研究结果表明,2011年配送量预测结果与实际配送量比较,相对误差为9.28%,评价具有一定的可靠性。根据2012年的配送量预测结果和现有仓储空间评价,建议营业所2012年租用或扩大库房面积约为245 m2。Based on the time series prediction method and linear regression method,the paper uses the distribution volume of Tangshan Cocacola branch from 2008 to 2011 as the original data to forecast the beverage distribution in the next two years,and makes a comparison between the predicted volume and the actual distribution quantity in 2011 in order to evaluate the validity of the method.Then the current storage utilization space of the distribution center was evaluated quantitatively.The result shows that the relative error is 9.28%,which indicates that the evaluation has certain reliability.According to the 2012 predicted distribution volume and the existing storage space,it is recommended to rent extra storehouse or expand the storehouse area about 245m2 in 2012.

关 键 词：仓储管理 配送量预测 时间序列预测法 线性回归法 

分 类 号：S789[农业科学—林学]