国际经济波动冲击发展中国家的路径——基于14个发展中国家的实证研究  

The Route to the Shocks of International Economic Fluctuations on Developing Countries:Empirical Study Based on 14 Developing Countries

作　　者：杨湘玉[1] 程源[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《财经研究》2012年第11期60-69,共10页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：文章以1980-2008年14个发展水平相近且外资开放度较高的发展中国家为研究对象,采用两阶段模型筛选方法,分析了FDI、国际贸易和国际经济周期变化的相互影响,以探讨经济全球化背景下发展中国家受到世界经济冲击的主要传递渠道及渠道间的关联。研究结果显示,FDI和贸易是传递世界经济波动的两条主要渠道;FDI、进口和GDP因相互影响而形成一条循环,其中FDI对进口具有单向的预测能力,因此,FDI相对于进口能更敏感地传递世界经济波动。Based on 14 developing countries with similar development level and higher degree of openness to foreign investment from 1980 to 2008, this paper employs a two-stage screening model to analyze the relationship among FDI,international trade and the changes in international economic cy- cle, in ＂order to study the main transmission channels of global economic shocks in developing countries and their correlation. The results show that FDI and trade are the two main channels that transmit global economic fluc- tuations to developing countries~ owing to the mutual effects, FDI, the im- port and GDP form a cycle,and FDI plays a one-direction role in forecasting the import, therefore, FDI is more sensitive to the transmission of global eco- nomic fluctuations to developing countries than the import.

关 键 词：国际经济波动 外商直接投资 国际贸易 

分 类 号：F114.44[经济管理—国际贸易]